PodcastHas Nuclear Deterrence Changed?
Here’s what he said:
Nuclear deterrence involves a mix of capabilities and intention. It’s fundamentally a psychological process.
Extended deterrence is a three-body problem. You have the nuclear power, the protected country, and the potential adversary. The key question is whether potential adversaries of the United States perceive these guarantees as eroding.
I would be cautious in not exaggerating the gap between the two sides of the Atlantic, because […] neither the US nor Europe are homogeneous blocks.
The mere existence of additional European nuclear forces, independent ones, […] already provides some form of additional nuclear guarantee.
I’m afraid that a major leader might miscalculate, just as Donald Trump may have miscalculated when he embarked on this military adventure in the Middle East.
I see no evidence that the controls over nuclear weapons, be it the technical controls or the political controls, are eroding one way or the other.
